Monday, June 17, 2013

Crude oil continues to look bullish

I have been bullish on crude oil for some time now. Since starting this blog in March, amongst the initial postings was an entry bluntly entitled, "Bullish Crude Oil Chart." And I've since written about how in my experience equities tend to lead their associated commodity. Given energy equities have been doing quite well, my expectation has been that crude oil will likewise do well.

The hourly chart below shows crude oil since I last posted on this subject in late May and earlier this month:


Price has remained in a solid uptrend, along the way undergoing periodic breakouts and retrenchments to the trend line -- very common and healthy action. Currently WTI is a bit extended in the short-term at $98 and change; another retrace is likely.

The daily chart also depicts a bullish picture:


With this recent rally, crude has successfully broken out of a triangle formation.  $100 looks to be an area of potential resistance given it approximates last September's prior high and is also a nice round number (don't dismiss the importance of round numbers, review behavioral finance studies). Again, it wouldn't surprise me to see a pullback take place soon before a run at new highs occurs.

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