Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Bullish Crude Oil Chart

The technical outlook for crude oil (WTI) remains bullish. 

The hourly chart shows crude in a nice uptrend with a recent breakout through $94. The daily chart below it displays a more complete bullish picture, with crude breaking through a declining trend line this past January, pulling back to the rising trend line and has since rallied to the $95-$96 level.

But similar to my questions concerning the Eurozone in recession and yet respective equities remaining in an uptrend, I wonder why crude oil appears bullish when all we hear about is how the supply of crude oil is booming thanks to fracking...? With rising supply and presumably flat demand (although reports are demand is actually in decline), shouldn't the crude oil chart look bearish?

I suppose the chart is suggesting that despite the increase in crude supply, it's still not enough to meet demand, namely future demand, as global economies are expected to continue to improve. Whereas the Eurozone is in recession, the two largest economies in the world, U.S. and China, are in recuperation mode and perhaps crude is reflecting the anticipation for enduring improvement.

As always, I don't pretend to know all the answers, instead choosing to respect what the charts are telling me. In this case, my take is the outlook for crude oil remains bullish.

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