Friday, March 29, 2013

Natgas: Little Evidence of Excess Supply from Fracking

I’ve been bullish on natural gas since last July and natgas is up 29% since then (vs. -1% for the CCI index). The chart still looks very bullish:


The price recently surged to $4, successfully breaking through the neckline of a fairly massive bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. All good.

Question: if fracking is allowing for an unprecedented boom in natural gas supply, then why does the chart appear so bullish? Despite the flood of supply, is it saying demand for natural gas is outstripping supply? Or is it saying supply has been overstated?

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