The chart below shows light sweet crude oil (WTI) versus RYE, the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal-Weight Energy ETF:
I prefer to use the equal-weight ETF as it allows for a less XOM-dominated depiction. As you can see, energy equities as per RYE (black line) are approaching a new high whereas crude oil (red line) remains quite subdued at around $94, creating a fairly significant divergence.
Over the years, I've often debated which tends to lead, equities or the underlying commodity. Although clearly they move more or less in tandem, I've come to conclude that equities tend to lead the commodity. Note in the chart above equities moved ahead of WTI in early 2007, the peak in 2008 and again in late 2010.
Assuming this tendency holds up, I would expect that with the RYE flirting with new highs, the multi-month divergence between energy equities and crude oil will be closed via the commodity (WTI) rallying from here.