Thursday, May 9, 2013

Tesla Continues to Soar

I wrote about Tesla (TSLA) on April 4th, the blog post was entitled, "Tesla: Earnings, Smernings!" At the time, the stock was up 31% YTD and was hitting a new high. It had bullish cup-with-handle and inverse head-and-shoulders formations, a powerful duo. I wrote then, "Tesla is expected to earn a profit in FY2013, so as per usual price is likely discounting the future, moving on expectations as opposed to past history."

Fast-forward to today, with TSLA up almost 20% this morning as the company reported a better-than-expected 1Q. Deliveries and revenues surpassed consensus numbers, but more importantly TSLA reported its first-ever profit, an EPS of $0.12 versus analysts expecting breakeven to a small loss. Needless to say, the huge outstanding short interest is playing a large part in the stock's massive spike today, with a mother-of-all squeezes taking place. Shares have now almost doubled YTD.


Again, TSLA is another example of price leading the eventual news or the eventual reality. Ever since its IPO, Tesla's stock has steadily risen despite reporting red ink during those years. But now it appears that the company will most likely report a fiscal year profit very soon, to the apparent surprise of many.

As is often said, the chart "speaks" and it frequently pays (literally) to try and decipher what it's saying.

1 comment:

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