I will emphasize that it's very important to avoid getting seduced into a particular mindset at any point in time. Becoming "married" to a viewpoint and constantly seeking out confirmation of this view is a behavioral finance cardinal sin. I am always trying to poke holes in my current take on things, ever fearful that I might have missed something. That said I continue to uncover items that just serve to foster more concern.
For one, the market's advance as per the S&P 500 appears stretched historically:
In addition, I continue to find nagging bearish divergences.
Finally, I found the following chart to be very interesting, and possibly alarming.
Over time, the return of the TSX Venture/TSX Composite ratio has tended to move in tandem with the S&P 500. If anything, the red line has frequently led moves in the S&P 500 with it rising well ahead of the S&P 500 low in late 2002, peaking in 2006 before the S&P 500 peak a year later, and bottoming in late 2008 a few months before the S&P 500 low in March 2009. And yet since the start of 2012, there has developed a massive divergence between the red and black lines. Note also that in the past, when the TSI indicator and Stochastic Oscillator have registered oversold levels -- as is the case now -- the S&P 500 has typically been at a significant low. That does not appear to be the case this time around.
I don't wish to overstate the relationship between the TSX Venture/TSX Composite and the S&P 500 as I'm certainly aware of what has occurred with smaller-cap mining stocks, no doubt severely depressing the relative performance of the TSX Venture Index. However, it is a relationship that has broken down completely over the last year or so and I felt it was worth mentioning, do with it what you will.
As I've strongly suggested of late, I remain wary and cautious about the market's recent leg higher.