Thursday, June 13, 2013

Market Update: S&P 500 in short-term trading range

Last Wednesday, the morning of June 5th, I wrote, "I expect this recent correction to be short-lived, with the market most likely regrouping at the 1600-1620 level before making another run at prior highs." And the next day I wrote, "there are now enough price points to draw a lower-boundary declining trend line (blue) which indicates 1600 as support -- further confirming that round number that was arrived at due to 1) April's prior highs, and 2) the 50-day MA is approximately at 1600."

The S&P 500 did put in a bottom at 1600 on June 6th and rallied to about 1645 before rolling over.


The Index retreated all the way back to prior support at 1600 and is now attempting another rally. As shown in the hourly chart above, the S&P 500 could be carving out a trading range within 1600 and 1640. It is premature, admittedly, but early indications are 1600 is fairly firm support and 1640 looks to be the new resistance area.

If in fact the market (S&P 500) were to trade sideways within this 1600-1640 range, it would be a bullish occurrence and further bolster odds that this recent correction remains a healthy one. Better for the prior months of gains to get digested via traversing sideways then to correct with a more severe decline in prices. That said, as I wrote on June 6th, "1600 needs to hold in a meaningful way (meaning dips to 1598 or even 1595 are OK, often just shake-out moves). If 1600 is broken beyond just a minor, brief dip, my tune will almost certainly change."

1 comment:

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